PROGRESS!!!
This is my first time attempting a light scheme this complex and I'm pleased with the result so far. Feedback welcome, I'd like to fix anything early if some kind of mistake slipped in!
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Cast shadows were made using a "classic" shortcut - you render first, assuming light hits the entire face and considering only AO (which is a bit non-intuitive, but when you paint a portrait that's lit in diffuse light, you essentially get that). Then you duplicate that layer, darken it and shift its hue, and use a mask to apply it only where you want it to cast, in this case the face on the shape, under the nose, neck, and under every floaty bit. Then I merged the shapes and kept at it with overpainting, notably adding a lot of sub-surface scattering. Hope you like it so far, but feel free to leave feedback!!